Local AI
1.09°C
mean error · AIFS on an RTX 4070 Ti SUPER
- rmse
- 1.35
- bias
- -0.71
- worst
- 3.69
- wins
- 108
Open log · updates itself
collecting · last run: 2026-10-02 00:00:00 UTCWeather scoreboard
The weights of ECMWF’s forecast model are public, and they weigh under a gigabyte. So I set it running on my desktop graphics card, and every day I record two things before anything happens: what that model predicts at my house and what the official forecast predicts, which runs on a supercomputer.
When time passes, what actually occurred gets written down. Predictions are never edited. In a few months this table will say who gets it right more often, without anyone having to be taken at their word.
Next hour awaiting confirmation: 2/10, 21:00, 12.5 °C predicted by the model at home.
Officialahead
0.98°C
mean error · ECMWF operational IFS
- rmse
- 1.24
- bias
- -0.63
- worst
- 3.40
- wins
- 139
250 hours verified6 waiting on the clocksince 2026-08-16Santiago, Chile · temperature at 2 m
The three curvesThe reality line stops where time has not arrived yet.
- Local AI
- Official
- What happened
0°
10°
20°
30°
16/8, 02:005.8° Local AI6.0° Official6.6° What happened
16/8, 08:004.7° Local AI5.1° Official4.9° What happened
16/8, 14:0014.8° Local AI15.2° Official14.0° What happened
16/8, 20:0010.2° Local AI9.8° Official10.8° What happened
17/8, 02:007.6° Local AI8.4° Official8.9° What happened
17/8, 08:007.3° Local AI8.3° Official8.1° What happened
17/8, 14:0013.8° Local AI13.5° Official13.5° What happened
17/8, 20:0010.8° Local AI10.3° Official11.6° What happened
18/8, 02:007.5° Local AI6.4° Official8.1° What happened
18/8, 08:006.2° Local AI3.8° Official7.1° What happened
18/8, 14:0018.0° Local AI17.6° Official17.0° What happened
18/8, 20:0012.6° Local AI11.8° Official13.4° What happened
19/8, 02:008.3° Local AI7.8° Official9.6° What happened
19/8, 08:006.4° Local AI6.5° Official8.9° What happened
19/8, 14:0016.8° Local AI18.3° Official17.7° What happened
19/8, 20:0011.7° Local AI12.1° Official12.2° What happened
20/8, 02:007.8° Local AI8.7° Official10.5° What happened
20/8, 08:006.7° Local AI7.8° Official10.4° What happened
20/8, 14:0018.6° Local AI19.2° Official16.9° What happened
20/8, 20:0013.4° Local AI13.4° Official13.6° What happened
21/8, 02:009.4° Local AI8.4° Official10.2° What happened
21/8, 08:008.7° Local AI6.2° Official9.1° What happened
21/8, 14:0023.4° Local AI22.6° Official21.7° What happened
21/8, 20:0016.8° Local AI15.5° Official17.0° What happened
22/8, 02:0012.3° Local AI9.0° Official12.4° What happened
22/8, 08:0010.6° Local AI8.9° Official11.5° What happened
22/8, 14:0024.1° Local AI23.9° Official23.1° What happened
22/8, 20:0018.0° Local AI17.8° Official19.0° What happened
23/8, 02:0012.0° Local AI11.7° Official14.6° What happened
23/8, 08:009.7° Local AI10.5° Official12.2° What happened
23/8, 14:0019.2° Local AI20.4° Official21.1° What happened
23/8, 20:0013.1° Local AI13.5° Official13.1° What happened
24/8, 02:009.0° Local AI11.0° Official11.6° What happened
27/8, 08:008.9° Local AI8.4° Official9.2° What happened
27/8, 14:0014.5° Local AI15.4° Official14.4° What happened
27/8, 20:0010.7° Local AI10.1° Official10.3° What happened
28/8, 02:007.6° Local AI8.2° Official8.0° What happened
28/8, 08:006.8° Local AI7.5° Official7.8° What happened
28/8, 14:0017.1° Local AI16.0° Official15.9° What happened
28/8, 20:0011.4° Local AI10.2° Official11.0° What happened
29/8, 02:007.3° Local AI7.2° Official7.4° What happened
29/8, 08:006.8° Local AI6.6° Official7.0° What happened
29/8, 14:0018.6° Local AI17.4° Official17.2° What happened
29/8, 20:0012.3° Local AI12.7° Official12.5° What happened
30/8, 02:007.7° Local AI6.8° Official9.3° What happened
30/8, 08:007.1° Local AI7.3° Official9.4° What happened
30/8, 14:0017.7° Local AI17.3° Official16.1° What happened
30/8, 20:0012.8° Local AI10.8° Official11.0° What happened
31/8, 02:009.7° Local AI9.9° Official10.5° What happened
31/8, 08:008.9° Local AI9.8° Official9.5° What happened
31/8, 14:0018.5° Local AI17.8° Official17.5° What happened
31/8, 20:0013.6° Local AI13.5° Official14.7° What happened
1/9, 02:009.4° Local AI9.1° Official11.0° What happened
1/9, 08:009.3° Local AI7.9° Official8.6° What happened
1/9, 14:0021.6° Local AI19.8° Official19.5° What happened
1/9, 20:0016.6° Local AI15.0° Official17.1° What happened
2/9, 02:0013.2° Local AI11.6° Official14.3° What happened
2/9, 08:0011.2° Local AI10.8° Official12.9° What happened
2/9, 14:0019.9° Local AI20.2° Official20.5° What happened
2/9, 20:0014.0° Local AI13.4° Official14.2° What happened
3/9, 02:0010.3° Local AI10.2° Official11.9° What happened
3/9, 08:009.9° Local AI9.3° Official9.7° What happened
3/9, 14:0018.4° Local AI18.4° Official18.3° What happened
3/9, 20:0013.2° Local AI12.6° Official13.9° What happened
4/9, 02:008.1° Local AI9.1° Official10.5° What happened
4/9, 08:007.4° Local AI7.8° Official8.7° What happened
4/9, 14:0019.1° Local AI18.9° Official18.4° What happened
4/9, 20:0013.4° Local AI12.8° Official13.9° What happened
5/9, 02:008.2° Local AI8.4° Official9.7° What happened
5/9, 08:006.9° Local AI7.2° Official7.7° What happened
5/9, 14:0021.2° Local AI21.1° Official21.2° What happened
5/9, 20:0014.5° Local AI13.1° Official14.5° What happened
6/9, 03:008.1° Local AI8.4° Official10.3° What happened
6/9, 09:007.4° Local AI7.5° Official9.9° What happened
6/9, 15:0020.2° Local AI18.5° Official20.0° What happened
6/9, 21:0011.8° Local AI11.0° Official13.0° What happened
7/9, 03:007.2° Local AI6.8° Official8.7° What happened
8/9, 03:006.6° Local AI6.5° Official7.7° What happened
8/9, 09:006.4° Local AI7.3° Official8.5° What happened
8/9, 15:0017.0° Local AI17.9° Official18.7° What happened
8/9, 21:0010.9° Local AI10.9° Official10.6° What happened
9/9, 03:007.7° Local AI7.8° Official8.0° What happened
9/9, 09:007.2° Local AI7.3° Official7.6° What happened
9/9, 15:0017.2° Local AI17.4° Official17.7° What happened
9/9, 21:0011.8° Local AI13.1° Official13.7° What happened
10/9, 03:008.4° Local AI8.7° Official10.3° What happened
10/9, 09:008.2° Local AI9.1° Official10.4° What happened
10/9, 15:0016.8° Local AI16.1° Official13.9° What happened
10/9, 21:0011.3° Local AI12.7° Official12.3° What happened
11/9, 03:008.1° Local AI9.1° Official9.8° What happened
11/9, 09:008.3° Local AI9.5° Official9.1° What happened
11/9, 15:0015.8° Local AI16.3° Official15.2° What happened
11/9, 21:0010.8° Local AI10.5° Official11.2° What happened
12/9, 03:008.1° Local AI8.5° Official8.9° What happened
12/9, 09:007.5° Local AI8.1° Official8.4° What happened
12/9, 15:0020.1° Local AI19.8° Official18.5° What happened
12/9, 21:0014.8° Local AI14.6° Official15.0° What happened
13/9, 03:009.0° Local AI9.4° Official9.7° What happened
13/9, 09:009.7° Local AI8.4° Official10.3° What happened
13/9, 15:0023.5° Local AI24.0° Official23.6° What happened
13/9, 21:0016.0° Local AI16.1° Official16.8° What happened
14/9, 03:009.5° Local AI10.8° Official11.6° What happened
14/9, 09:009.5° Local AI11.0° Official12.4° What happened
14/9, 15:0024.0° Local AI24.7° Official24.7° What happened
14/9, 21:0017.6° Local AI18.3° Official19.3° What happened
15/9, 03:0011.5° Local AI13.0° Official14.2° What happened
15/9, 09:0012.1° Local AI13.3° Official13.7° What happened
15/9, 15:0027.0° Local AI27.9° Official27.6° What happened
15/9, 21:0019.2° Local AI19.7° Official20.8° What happened
16/9, 03:0012.3° Local AI13.7° Official15.0° What happened
16/9, 09:0012.3° Local AI13.7° Official14.9° What happened
16/9, 15:0026.7° Local AI26.7° Official26.0° What happened
16/9, 21:0019.5° Local AI19.7° Official19.8° What happened
17/9, 03:0013.1° Local AI14.4° Official16.3° What happened
17/9, 09:0013.2° Local AI14.7° Official15.7° What happened
17/9, 15:0026.9° Local AI26.8° Official27.6° What happened
17/9, 21:0017.3° Local AI16.9° Official17.7° What happened
20/9, 03:0011.5° Local AI11.5° Official11.0° What happened
20/9, 09:0011.6° Local AI10.7° Official11.7° What happened
20/9, 15:0015.4° Local AI16.3° Official17.6° What happened
20/9, 21:0012.2° Local AI11.7° Official11.5° What happened
21/9, 03:009.9° Local AI10.2° Official9.7° What happened
21/9, 09:009.7° Local AI10.5° Official9.8° What happened
21/9, 15:0018.6° Local AI19.2° Official20.1° What happened
21/9, 21:0014.9° Local AI13.9° Official15.4° What happened
25/9, 03:0011.6° Local AI12.6° Official12.0° What happened
25/9, 09:0013.0° Local AI13.4° Official13.5° What happened
25/9, 15:0020.0° Local AI22.7° Official20.1° What happened
25/9, 21:0017.3° Local AI17.0° Official16.4° What happened
26/9, 03:0013.5° Local AI13.2° Official13.9° What happened
26/9, 09:0014.5° Local AI14.2° Official15.4° What happened
26/9, 15:0023.5° Local AI24.1° Official22.8° What happened
26/9, 21:0018.2° Local AI17.5° Official17.9° What happened
27/9, 03:0013.8° Local AI13.3° Official14.1° What happened
27/9, 09:0014.4° Local AI13.6° Official13.8° What happened
27/9, 15:0023.0° Local AI22.4° Official22.2° What happened
27/9, 21:0017.7° Local AI17.5° Official17.2° What happened
28/9, 03:0012.7° Local AI12.2° Official13.3° What happened
28/9, 09:0013.3° Local AI13.8° Official13.6° What happened
28/9, 15:0019.6° Local AI19.9° Official19.7° What happened
28/9, 21:0014.1° Local AI13.3° Official13.2° What happened
29/9, 03:009.6° Local AI11.0° Official11.1° What happened
29/9, 09:0010.2° Local AI11.1° Official11.1° What happened
29/9, 15:0017.2° Local AI17.6° Official16.5° What happened
29/9, 21:0013.0° Local AI12.2° Official12.5° What happened
30/9, 03:0010.4° Local AI11.2° Official11.6° What happened
30/9, 09:0010.8° Local AI10.9° Official11.1° What happened
30/9, 15:0015.2° Local AI18.6° Official17.5° What happened
30/9, 21:0013.2° Local AI13.9° Official14.2° What happened
1/10, 03:0011.6° Local AI10.8° Official11.8° What happened
1/10, 09:0014.1° Local AI14.0° Official14.3° What happened
1/10, 15:0026.1° Local AI27.6° Official26.7° What happened
1/10, 21:0019.0° Local AI19.1° Official19.9° What happened
2/10, 03:0014.2° Local AI15.2° Official16.3° What happened
2/10, 09:0013.6° Local AI14.7° Official14.5° What happened
2/10, 15:0018.8° Local AI18.9° Official18.0° What happened
2/10, 21:0012.5° Local AI13.0° Official— What happened
3/10, 03:009.6° Local AI10.5° Official— What happened
3/10, 09:0010.5° Local AI10.6° Official— What happened
3/10, 15:0019.7° Local AI18.9° Official— What happened
3/10, 21:0013.0° Local AI12.6° Official— What happened
The error by how far ahead you lookEach pair compares the mean error at that horizon. The further the model looks, the more it shows.
- Local AI
- Official
0
0.5
1
1.5
+6h1.12 °C Local AI1.03 °C Official
+12h0.99 °C Local AI0.62 °C Official
+18h0.86 °C Local AI1.01 °C Official
+24h1.01 °C Local AI1.03 °C Official
+30h1.29 °C Local AI1.19 °C Official
+36h1.20 °C Local AI0.83 °C Official
+42h0.79 °C Local AI0.81 °C Official
+48h1.45 °C Local AI1.39 °C Official
View as table
| Horizon | Local AI | Official |
|---|---|---|
| +6 h | 1.12 °C | 1.02 °C |
| +12 h | 0.99 °C | 0.62 °C |
| +18 h | 0.86 °C | 1.01 °C |
| +24 h | 1.01 °C | 1.03 °C |
| +30 h | 1.29 °C | 1.19 °C |
| +36 h | 1.20 °C | 0.83 °C |
| +42 h | 0.79 °C | 0.81 °C |
| +48 h | 1.45 °C | 1.39 °C |
The full log
The actual column gets filled in later, with the ERA5 reanalysis; until that arrives the recent analysis is used, marked with an asterisk. The two forecast columns are never edited.
Analysis of 2026-10-02 00:00:00 UTC3/8 verified
18s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/10, 03:00 | 14.22 | 15.20 | 16.30 | 2.08 | 1.10 |
| 2/10, 09:00 | 13.61 | 14.70 | 14.50 | 0.89 | 0.20 |
| 2/10, 15:00 | 18.81 | 18.90 | 18.00 | 0.81 | 0.90 |
| 2/10, 21:00 | 12.47 | 13.00 | — | — | |
| 3/10, 03:00 | 9.59 | 10.50 | — | — | |
| 3/10, 09:00 | 10.53 | 10.60 | — | — | |
| 3/10, 15:00 | 19.65 | 18.90 | — | — | |
| 3/10, 21:00 | 13.00 | 12.60 | — | — |
Analysis of 2026-10-01 00:00:00 UTC7/8 verified
19.2s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/10, 03:00 | 11.59 | 10.80 | 11.80 | 0.21 | 1.00 |
| 1/10, 09:00 | 14.06 | 14.00 | 14.30 | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| 1/10, 15:00 | 26.05 | 27.60 | 26.70 | 0.65 | 0.90 |
| 1/10, 21:00 | 18.96 | 19.10 | 19.90 | 0.94 | 0.80 |
| 2/10, 03:00 | 14.35 | 15.40 | 16.10 | 1.75 | 0.70 |
| 2/10, 09:00 | 13.68 | 13.50 | 14.50 | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| 2/10, 15:00 | 18.25 | 19.40 | 18.00 | 0.25 | 1.40 |
| 2/10, 21:00 | 12.23 | 12.60 | — | — |
Analysis of 2026-09-30 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
18.2s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/9, 03:00 | 10.39 | 11.20 | 11.60 | 1.21 | 0.40 |
| 30/9, 09:00 | 10.80 | 10.90 | 11.10 | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| 30/9, 15:00 | 15.21 | 18.60 | 17.50 | 2.29 | 1.10 |
| 30/9, 21:00 | 13.15 | 13.90 | 14.20 | 1.05 | 0.30 |
| 1/10, 03:00 | 11.29 | 10.10 | 12.00 | 0.71 | 1.90 |
| 1/10, 09:00 | 13.58 | 13.50 | 14.30 | 0.72 | 0.80 |
| 1/10, 15:00 | 25.68 | 26.90 | 26.70 | 1.02 | 0.20 |
| 1/10, 21:00 | 18.56 | 19.10 | 19.90 | 1.34 | 0.80 |
Analysis of 2026-09-29 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
18.9s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/9, 03:00 | 9.60 | 11.00 | 11.10 | 1.50 | 0.10 |
| 29/9, 09:00 | 10.16 | 11.10 | 11.10 | 0.94 | 0.00 |
| 29/9, 15:00 | 17.20 | 17.60 | 16.50 | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| 29/9, 21:00 | 12.97 | 12.20 | 12.50 | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| 30/9, 03:00 | 10.15 | 10.30 | 11.20 | 1.05 | 0.90 |
| 30/9, 09:00 | 10.16 | 10.30 | 11.10 | 0.94 | 0.80 |
| 30/9, 15:00 | 14.99 | 17.50 | 17.50 | 2.51 | 0.00 |
| 30/9, 21:00 | 13.23 | 14.40 | 14.20 | 0.97 | 0.20 |
Analysis of 2026-09-27 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.9s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/9, 03:00 | 13.78 | 13.30 | 14.10 | 0.32 | 0.80 |
| 27/9, 09:00 | 14.36 | 13.60 | 13.80 | 0.56 | 0.20 |
| 27/9, 15:00 | 23.01 | 22.40 | 22.20 | 0.81 | 0.20 |
| 27/9, 21:00 | 17.73 | 17.50 | 17.20 | 0.53 | 0.30 |
| 28/9, 03:00 | 12.70 | 12.20 | 13.30 | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| 28/9, 09:00 | 13.34 | 13.80 | 13.60 | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| 28/9, 15:00 | 19.63 | 19.90 | 19.70 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| 28/9, 21:00 | 14.08 | 13.30 | 13.20 | 0.88 | 0.10 |
Analysis of 2026-09-26 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
18.2s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/9, 03:00 | 13.49 | 13.20 | 13.90 | 0.41 | 0.70 |
| 26/9, 09:00 | 14.47 | 14.20 | 15.40 | 0.93 | 1.20 |
| 26/9, 15:00 | 23.49 | 24.10 | 22.80 | 0.69 | 1.30 |
| 26/9, 21:00 | 18.16 | 17.50 | 17.90 | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| 27/9, 03:00 | 13.45 | 13.60 | 13.80 | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| 27/9, 09:00 | 14.35 | 15.00 | 13.80 | 0.55 | 1.20 |
| 27/9, 15:00 | 23.82 | 23.20 | 22.20 | 1.62 | 1.00 |
| 27/9, 21:00 | 17.40 | 17.00 | 17.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
Analysis of 2026-09-25 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
18.1s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/9, 03:00 | 11.62 | 12.60 | 12.00 | 0.38 | 0.60 |
| 25/9, 09:00 | 13.03 | 13.40 | 13.50 | 0.47 | 0.10 |
| 25/9, 15:00 | 20.04 | 22.70 | 20.10 | 0.06 | 2.60 |
| 25/9, 21:00 | 17.30 | 17.00 | 16.40 | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| 26/9, 03:00 | 14.06 | 13.40 | 13.50 | 0.56 | 0.10 |
| 26/9, 09:00 | 13.94 | 13.50 | 15.40 | 1.46 | 1.90 |
| 26/9, 15:00 | 22.10 | 21.70 | 22.80 | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| 26/9, 21:00 | 16.92 | 16.40 | 17.90 | 0.98 | 1.50 |
Analysis of 2026-09-20 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.4s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/9, 03:00 | 11.51 | 11.50 | 11.00 | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| 20/9, 09:00 | 11.61 | 10.70 | 11.70 | 0.09 | 1.00 |
| 20/9, 15:00 | 15.37 | 16.30 | 17.60 | 2.23 | 1.30 |
| 20/9, 21:00 | 12.22 | 11.70 | 11.50 | 0.72 | 0.20 |
| 21/9, 03:00 | 9.87 | 10.20 | 9.70 | 0.17 | 0.50 |
| 21/9, 09:00 | 9.67 | 10.50 | 9.80 | 0.13 | 0.70 |
| 21/9, 15:00 | 18.64 | 19.20 | 20.10 | 1.46 | 0.90 |
| 21/9, 21:00 | 14.89 | 13.90 | 15.40 | 0.51 | 1.50 |
Analysis of 2026-09-16 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
18.2s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/9, 03:00 | 12.26 | 13.70 | 15.00 | 2.74 | 1.30 |
| 16/9, 09:00 | 12.27 | 13.70 | 14.90 | 2.63 | 1.20 |
| 16/9, 15:00 | 26.71 | 26.70 | 26.00 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| 16/9, 21:00 | 19.48 | 19.70 | 19.80 | 0.32 | 0.10 |
| 17/9, 03:00 | 13.13 | 14.40 | 16.30 | 3.17 | 1.90 |
| 17/9, 09:00 | 13.20 | 14.70 | 15.70 | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| 17/9, 15:00 | 26.89 | 26.80 | 27.60 | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| 17/9, 21:00 | 17.29 | 16.90 | 17.70 | 0.41 | 0.80 |
Analysis of 2026-09-15 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.8s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/9, 03:00 | 11.50 | 13.00 | 14.20 | 2.70 | 1.20 |
| 15/9, 09:00 | 12.08 | 13.30 | 13.70 | 1.62 | 0.40 |
| 15/9, 15:00 | 26.99 | 27.90 | 27.60 | 0.61 | 0.30 |
| 15/9, 21:00 | 19.21 | 19.70 | 20.80 | 1.59 | 1.10 |
| 16/9, 03:00 | 12.40 | 13.90 | 15.30 | 2.90 | 1.40 |
| 16/9, 09:00 | 12.36 | 14.20 | 14.90 | 2.54 | 0.70 |
| 16/9, 15:00 | 26.31 | 26.50 | 26.00 | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| 16/9, 21:00 | 18.99 | 19.60 | 19.80 | 0.81 | 0.20 |
Analysis of 2026-09-14 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.5s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/9, 03:00 | 9.50 | 10.80 | 11.60 | 2.10 | 0.80 |
| 14/9, 09:00 | 9.50 | 11.00 | 12.40 | 2.90 | 1.40 |
| 14/9, 15:00 | 23.99 | 24.70 | 24.70 | 0.71 | 0.00 |
| 14/9, 21:00 | 17.58 | 18.30 | 19.30 | 1.72 | 1.00 |
| 15/9, 03:00 | 11.55 | 13.30 | 14.70 | 3.15 | 1.40 |
| 15/9, 09:00 | 11.86 | 13.10 | 13.70 | 1.84 | 0.60 |
| 15/9, 15:00 | 26.70 | 27.60 | 27.60 | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| 15/9, 21:00 | 18.54 | 19.40 | 20.80 | 2.26 | 1.40 |
Analysis of 2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.9s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/9, 03:00 | 8.96 | 9.40 | 9.70 | 0.74 | 0.30 |
| 13/9, 09:00 | 9.70 | 8.40 | 10.30 | 0.60 | 1.90 |
| 13/9, 15:00 | 23.50 | 24.00 | 23.60 | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| 13/9, 21:00 | 15.97 | 16.10 | 16.80 | 0.83 | 0.70 |
| 14/9, 03:00 | 10.02 | 11.70 | 12.10 | 2.08 | 0.40 |
| 14/9, 09:00 | 9.84 | 11.70 | 12.40 | 2.56 | 0.70 |
| 14/9, 15:00 | 24.20 | 24.80 | 24.70 | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| 14/9, 21:00 | 17.57 | 18.60 | 19.30 | 1.73 | 0.70 |
Analysis of 2026-09-12 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.6s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/9, 03:00 | 8.05 | 8.50 | 8.90 | 0.85 | 0.40 |
| 12/9, 09:00 | 7.49 | 8.10 | 8.40 | 0.91 | 0.30 |
| 12/9, 15:00 | 20.10 | 19.80 | 18.50 | 1.60 | 1.30 |
| 12/9, 21:00 | 14.81 | 14.60 | 15.00 | 0.19 | 0.40 |
| 13/9, 03:00 | 9.55 | 9.40 | 10.30 | 0.75 | 0.90 |
| 13/9, 09:00 | 9.65 | 8.60 | 10.30 | 0.65 | 1.70 |
| 13/9, 15:00 | 23.52 | 23.30 | 23.60 | 0.08 | 0.30 |
| 13/9, 21:00 | 15.76 | 15.80 | 16.80 | 1.04 | 1.00 |
Analysis of 2026-09-11 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
18s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/9, 03:00 | 8.11 | 9.10 | 9.80 | 1.69 | 0.70 |
| 11/9, 09:00 | 8.34 | 9.50 | 9.10 | 0.76 | 0.40 |
| 11/9, 15:00 | 15.83 | 16.30 | 15.20 | 0.63 | 1.10 |
| 11/9, 21:00 | 10.84 | 10.50 | 11.20 | 0.36 | 0.70 |
| 12/9, 03:00 | 7.37 | 9.00 | 8.20 | 0.83 | 0.80 |
| 12/9, 09:00 | 6.53 | 8.10 | 8.40 | 1.87 | 0.30 |
| 12/9, 15:00 | 18.98 | 18.10 | 18.50 | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| 12/9, 21:00 | 13.89 | 13.00 | 15.00 | 1.11 | 2.00 |
Analysis of 2026-09-10 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.9s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/9, 03:00 | 8.41 | 8.70 | 10.30 | 1.89 | 1.60 |
| 10/9, 09:00 | 8.18 | 9.10 | 10.40 | 2.22 | 1.30 |
| 10/9, 15:00 | 16.78 | 16.10 | 13.90 | 2.88 | 2.20 |
| 10/9, 21:00 | 11.33 | 12.70 | 12.30 | 0.97 | 0.40 |
| 11/9, 03:00 | 7.44 | 8.30 | 9.40 | 1.96 | 1.10 |
| 11/9, 09:00 | 7.69 | 8.80 | 9.10 | 1.41 | 0.30 |
| 11/9, 15:00 | 16.04 | 16.10 | 15.20 | 0.84 | 0.90 |
| 11/9, 21:00 | 10.73 | 10.00 | 11.20 | 0.47 | 1.20 |
Analysis of 2026-09-09 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
19.6s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/9, 03:00 | 7.73 | 7.80 | 8.00 | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| 9/9, 09:00 | 7.22 | 7.30 | 7.60 | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| 9/9, 15:00 | 17.17 | 17.40 | 17.70 | 0.53 | 0.30 |
| 9/9, 21:00 | 11.81 | 13.10 | 13.70 | 1.89 | 0.60 |
| 10/9, 03:00 | 7.78 | 8.90 | 9.70 | 1.92 | 0.80 |
| 10/9, 09:00 | 7.26 | 8.30 | 10.40 | 3.14 | 2.10 |
| 10/9, 15:00 | 15.38 | 15.00 | 13.90 | 1.48 | 1.10 |
| 10/9, 21:00 | 10.85 | 10.70 | 12.30 | 1.45 | 1.60 |
Analysis of 2026-09-08 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.6s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/9, 03:00 | 6.59 | 6.50 | 7.70 | 1.11 | 1.20 |
| 8/9, 09:00 | 6.37 | 7.30 | 8.50 | 2.13 | 1.20 |
| 8/9, 15:00 | 16.97 | 17.90 | 18.70 | 1.73 | 0.80 |
| 8/9, 21:00 | 10.92 | 10.90 | 10.60 | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| 9/9, 03:00 | 7.68 | 9.10 | 8.10 | 0.42 | 1.00 |
| 9/9, 09:00 | 7.22 | 8.60 | 7.60 | 0.38 | 1.00 |
| 9/9, 15:00 | 16.23 | 16.40 | 17.70 | 1.47 | 1.30 |
| 9/9, 21:00 | 11.19 | 12.40 | 13.70 | 2.51 | 1.30 |
Analysis of 2026-09-05 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
18.9s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/9, 08:00 | 6.90 | 7.20 | 7.70 | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| 5/9, 14:00 | 21.21 | 21.10 | 21.20 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| 5/9, 20:00 | 14.49 | 13.10 | 14.50 | 0.01 | 1.40 |
| 6/9, 03:00 | 8.05 | 8.40 | 10.30 | 2.25 | 1.90 |
| 6/9, 09:00 | 7.41 | 7.50 | 9.90 | 2.49 | 2.40 |
| 6/9, 15:00 | 20.21 | 18.50 | 20.00 | 0.21 | 1.50 |
| 6/9, 21:00 | 11.83 | 11.00 | 13.00 | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| 7/9, 03:00 | 7.24 | 6.80 | 8.70 | 1.46 | 1.90 |
Analysis of 2026-09-04 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
19.1s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/9, 08:00 | 7.42 | 7.80 | 8.70 | 1.28 | 0.90 |
| 4/9, 14:00 | 19.14 | 18.90 | 18.40 | 0.74 | 0.50 |
| 4/9, 20:00 | 13.37 | 12.80 | 13.90 | 0.53 | 1.10 |
| 5/9, 02:00 | 8.22 | 8.40 | 9.70 | 1.48 | 1.30 |
| 5/9, 08:00 | 7.71 | 7.80 | 7.70 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| 5/9, 14:00 | 21.11 | 20.80 | 21.20 | 0.09 | 0.40 |
| 5/9, 20:00 | 14.34 | 12.80 | 14.50 | 0.16 | 1.70 |
| 6/9, 03:00 | 7.98 | 8.00 | 10.30 | 2.32 | 2.30 |
Analysis of 2026-09-02 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.9s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/9, 08:00 | 11.18 | 10.80 | 12.90 | 1.72 | 2.10 |
| 2/9, 14:00 | 19.85 | 20.20 | 20.50 | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| 2/9, 20:00 | 13.95 | 13.40 | 14.20 | 0.25 | 0.80 |
| 3/9, 02:00 | 10.32 | 10.20 | 11.90 | 1.58 | 1.70 |
| 3/9, 08:00 | 9.94 | 9.30 | 9.70 | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| 3/9, 14:00 | 18.44 | 18.40 | 18.30 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| 3/9, 20:00 | 13.20 | 12.60 | 13.90 | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| 4/9, 02:00 | 8.05 | 9.10 | 10.50 | 2.45 | 1.40 |
Analysis of 2026-09-01 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
108.4s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/9, 08:00 | 9.33 | 7.90 | 8.60 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| 1/9, 14:00 | 21.59 | 19.80 | 19.50 | 2.09 | 0.30 |
| 1/9, 20:00 | 16.63 | 15.00 | 17.10 | 0.47 | 2.10 |
| 2/9, 02:00 | 13.21 | 11.60 | 14.30 | 1.09 | 2.70 |
| 2/9, 08:00 | 11.81 | 10.30 | 12.90 | 1.09 | 2.60 |
| 2/9, 14:00 | 19.45 | 19.20 | 20.50 | 1.05 | 1.30 |
| 2/9, 20:00 | 13.79 | 14.20 | 14.20 | 0.41 | 0.00 |
| 3/9, 02:00 | 10.10 | 10.00 | 11.90 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Analysis of 2026-08-31 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.8s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/8, 08:00 | 8.89 | 9.80 | 9.50 | 0.61 | 0.30 |
| 31/8, 14:00 | 18.48 | 17.80 | 17.50 | 0.98 | 0.30 |
| 31/8, 20:00 | 13.63 | 13.50 | 14.70 | 1.07 | 1.20 |
| 1/9, 02:00 | 9.43 | 9.10 | 11.00 | 1.57 | 1.90 |
| 1/9, 08:00 | 9.09 | 8.80 | 8.60 | 0.49 | 0.20 |
| 1/9, 14:00 | 22.07 | 19.40 | 19.50 | 2.57 | 0.10 |
| 1/9, 20:00 | 16.50 | 15.40 | 17.10 | 0.60 | 1.70 |
| 2/9, 02:00 | 13.14 | 11.70 | 14.30 | 1.16 | 2.60 |
Analysis of 2026-08-30 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.8s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/8, 08:00 | 7.14 | 7.30 | 9.40 | 2.26 | 2.10 |
| 30/8, 14:00 | 17.73 | 17.30 | 16.10 | 1.63 | 1.20 |
| 30/8, 20:00 | 12.76 | 10.80 | 11.00 | 1.76 | 0.20 |
| 31/8, 02:00 | 9.72 | 9.90 | 10.50 | 0.78 | 0.60 |
| 31/8, 08:00 | 9.07 | 8.90 | 9.50 | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| 31/8, 14:00 | 19.28 | 18.20 | 17.50 | 1.78 | 0.70 |
| 31/8, 20:00 | 13.76 | 13.70 | 14.70 | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| 1/9, 02:00 | 9.10 | 9.00 | 11.00 | 1.90 | 2.00 |
Analysis of 2026-08-28 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
14.5s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/8, 08:00 | 6.80 | 7.50 | 7.80 | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| 28/8, 14:00 | 17.05 | 16.00 | 15.90 | 1.15 | 0.10 |
| 28/8, 20:00 | 11.36 | 10.20 | 11.00 | 0.36 | 0.80 |
| 29/8, 02:00 | 7.26 | 7.20 | 7.40 | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| 29/8, 08:00 | 6.79 | 6.60 | 7.00 | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| 29/8, 14:00 | 18.56 | 17.40 | 17.20 | 1.36 | 0.20 |
| 29/8, 20:00 | 12.30 | 12.70 | 12.50 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| 30/8, 02:00 | 7.65 | 6.80 | 9.30 | 1.65 | 2.50 |
Analysis of 2026-08-27 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.7s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/8, 08:00 | 8.94 | 8.40 | 9.20 | 0.26 | 0.80 |
| 27/8, 14:00 | 14.54 | 15.40 | 14.40 | 0.14 | 1.00 |
| 27/8, 20:00 | 10.69 | 10.10 | 10.30 | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| 28/8, 02:00 | 7.61 | 8.20 | 8.00 | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| 28/8, 08:00 | 7.07 | 7.00 | 7.80 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| 28/8, 14:00 | 16.60 | 15.50 | 15.90 | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| 28/8, 20:00 | 11.21 | 9.50 | 11.00 | 0.21 | 1.50 |
| 29/8, 02:00 | 7.08 | 6.60 | 7.40 | 0.32 | 0.80 |
Analysis of 2026-08-22 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
16.7s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/8, 08:00 | 10.64 | 8.90 | 11.50 | 0.86 | 2.60 |
| 22/8, 14:00 | 24.10 | 23.90 | 23.10 | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| 22/8, 20:00 | 18.02 | 17.80 | 19.00 | 0.98 | 1.20 |
| 23/8, 02:00 | 11.98 | 11.70 | 14.60 | 2.62 | 2.90 |
| 23/8, 08:00 | 9.67 | 10.50 | 12.20 | 2.53 | 1.70 |
| 23/8, 14:00 | 19.23 | 20.40 | 21.10 | 1.87 | 0.70 |
| 23/8, 20:00 | 13.13 | 13.50 | 13.10 | 0.03 | 0.40 |
| 24/8, 02:00 | 9.00 | 11.00 | 11.60 | 2.60 | 0.60 |
Analysis of 2026-08-21 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
17.2s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/8, 08:00 | 8.65 | 6.20 | 9.10 | 0.45 | 2.90 |
| 21/8, 14:00 | 23.40 | 22.60 | 21.70 | 1.70 | 0.90 |
| 21/8, 20:00 | 16.82 | 15.50 | 17.00 | 0.18 | 1.50 |
| 22/8, 02:00 | 12.30 | 9.00 | 12.40 | 0.10 | 3.40 |
| 22/8, 08:00 | 11.34 | 8.50 | 11.50 | 0.16 | 3.00 |
| 22/8, 14:00 | 23.22 | 23.90 | 23.10 | 0.12 | 0.80 |
| 22/8, 20:00 | 17.11 | 17.80 | 19.00 | 1.89 | 1.20 |
| 23/8, 02:00 | 11.55 | 11.40 | 14.60 | 3.05 | 3.20 |
Analysis of 2026-08-19 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
22.3s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/8, 08:00 | 6.41 | 6.50 | 8.90 | 2.49 | 2.40 |
| 19/8, 14:00 | 16.81 | 18.30 | 17.70 | 0.89 | 0.60 |
| 19/8, 20:00 | 11.65 | 12.10 | 12.20 | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| 20/8, 02:00 | 7.82 | 8.70 | 10.50 | 2.68 | 1.80 |
| 20/8, 08:00 | 6.71 | 7.80 | 10.40 | 3.69 | 2.60 |
| 20/8, 14:00 | 18.56 | 19.20 | 16.90 | 1.66 | 2.30 |
| 20/8, 20:00 | 13.40 | 13.40 | 13.60 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| 21/8, 02:00 | 9.40 | 8.40 | 10.20 | 0.80 | 1.80 |
Analysis of 2026-08-18 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
21.3s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/8, 08:00 | 6.21 | 3.80 | 7.10 | 0.89 | 3.30 |
| 18/8, 14:00 | 17.95 | 17.60 | 17.00 | 0.95 | 0.60 |
| 18/8, 20:00 | 12.64 | 11.80 | 13.40 | 0.76 | 1.60 |
| 19/8, 02:00 | 8.30 | 7.80 | 9.60 | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| 19/8, 08:00 | 6.81 | 6.00 | 8.90 | 2.09 | 2.90 |
| 19/8, 14:00 | 16.40 | 17.20 | 17.70 | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| 19/8, 20:00 | 11.34 | 12.40 | 12.20 | 0.86 | 0.20 |
| 20/8, 02:00 | 7.32 | 9.70 | 10.50 | 3.18 | 0.80 |
Analysis of 2026-08-17 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
19.1s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/8, 08:00 | 7.25 | 8.30 | 8.10 | 0.85 | 0.20 |
| 17/8, 14:00 | 13.76 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 0.26 | 0.00 |
| 17/8, 20:00 | 10.76 | 10.30 | 11.60 | 0.84 | 1.30 |
| 18/8, 02:00 | 7.51 | 6.40 | 8.10 | 0.59 | 1.70 |
| 18/8, 08:00 | 6.39 | 3.80 | 7.10 | 0.71 | 3.30 |
| 18/8, 14:00 | 17.94 | 17.60 | 17.00 | 0.94 | 0.60 |
| 18/8, 20:00 | 12.58 | 11.80 | 13.40 | 0.82 | 1.60 |
| 19/8, 02:00 | 8.09 | 7.80 | 9.60 | 1.51 | 1.80 |
Analysis of 2026-08-16 06:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
19.4s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/8, 08:00 | 4.67 | 5.10 | 4.90 | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| 16/8, 14:00 | 14.79 | 15.20 | 14.00 | 0.79 | 1.20 |
| 16/8, 20:00 | 10.21 | 9.80 | 10.80 | 0.59 | 1.00 |
| 17/8, 02:00 | 7.55 | 8.40 | 8.90 | 1.35 | 0.50 |
| 17/8, 08:00 | 6.59 | 7.90 | 8.10 | 1.51 | 0.20 |
| 17/8, 14:00 | 13.62 | 12.70 | 13.50 | 0.12 | 0.80 |
| 17/8, 20:00 | 10.47 | 10.40 | 11.60 | 1.13 | 1.20 |
| 18/8, 02:00 | 6.94 | 5.70 | 8.10 | 1.16 | 2.40 |
Analysis of 2026-08-16 00:00:00 UTC8/8 verified
108.5s on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti SUPER · 5.77 GB of memory· grid -33.583, -70.720
| Hour (Chile) | Local AI | Official | Actual | AI error | Official error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/8, 02:00 | 5.77 | 6.00 | 6.60 | 0.83 | 0.60 |
| 16/8, 08:00 | 5.15 | 5.10 | 4.90 | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| 16/8, 14:00 | 15.17 | 15.20 | 14.00 | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| 16/8, 20:00 | 10.43 | 9.80 | 10.80 | 0.37 | 1.00 |
| 17/8, 02:00 | 7.59 | 8.40 | 8.90 | 1.31 | 0.50 |
| 17/8, 08:00 | 6.56 | 7.90 | 8.10 | 1.54 | 0.20 |
| 17/8, 14:00 | 12.88 | 12.70 | 13.50 | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| 17/8, 20:00 | 10.10 | 10.40 | 11.60 | 1.50 | 1.20 |
Method and data
- Local model
- ECMWF AIFS Single 2.0, public weights (CC-BY-4.0), running on an RTX 4070 Ti SUPER with the wrapper that swaps flash-attn for SDPA.
- Official reference
- ECMWF operational IFS via Open-Meteo, requested with
cell_selection=nearestandelevation=nanto get the grid point without elevation correction. Without those parameters the value arrives adjusted by a 90 m elevation model, which introduces 0.60 °C of bias in Santiago. - Ground truth
- ERA5 reanalysis. While ERA5 is unavailable the recent analysis is used, flagged as provisional and replaced as soon as the definitive one arrives.
- Point
- The nearest point of the reduced Gaussian grid to Santiago (−33.4489, −70.6693), about 15 km from the centre. No interpolation.
- Metrics
- MAE is the mean absolute error. RMSE squares before averaging, so it punishes large errors more: if it is well above the MAE, the model fails rarely but badly. Bias carries a sign and says whether it runs warm or cold.
- Known limitation
- The IFS updates four times a day and the scoreboard queries the current forecast, which may start from a more recent analysis than AIFS does. That favours the official one. Pinning both runs to the same initial analysis is still pending.
Download the full log as CSV· 256 rows · regenerated on every update
How it is built, step by step, in the article about the model.The code that keeps this log lives onGitHub.